The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in November—and which races could flip Congress
Control of the United States Senate hangs in the balance during the 2020 elections. Stacker has the breakdown on which Senate races can make all the difference.
and which races could flip Congress
, contentious Supreme Court hearings, and an embattled Republican president with low approval ratings, power in Congress has the potential to experience a significant shift this election cycle. Should the Democrats take back the Senate and the White House, and retain their majority in the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party will be in control of the federal government for the first time since the 111th Congress from 2009 to 2011.
With the stakes so high for working families and average citizens, many who have lost work due to the coronavirus pandemic, movements for voter registration have been much louder than in previous election cycles. Candidates are under greater scrutiny, live debates are widely viewed, and fundraising against prolific incumbent Republican senators have reached noticeable highs.
This election cycle, 23 Republican seats are up for re-election, with 12 Democratic seats contested as well. As dramatic as the presidential election of 2020 may be, the Senate elections could very well have a larger impact on Americans. Candidates are facing their constituents as early voting begins, but polling data gives some authoritative insight on how Election Day may go for them.
Using forecast data from 270toWin and FiveThirtyEight, Stacker laid out the 35 Senate races that will be decided on Election Day—Nov. 3—and the likely outcome of each race. The 270toWin forecast takes into consideration projections from four different political pundits and rates each projected outcome either a toss-up, or safe, likely, or leaning toward one party. The FiveThirtyEight forecast uses a model that simulates each election 40,000 times to show possible outcomes and then calculates each major candidate’s chance of winning the election. Both forecasts are updated daily.
Georgia and Louisiana will have special elections this year, which means that multiple candidates from each party are competing for the majority vote on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, the top two candidates will have a runoff election after Election Day. Additionally, most elections will have the incumbent going up against the other party’s nominated candidate, but Kansas, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Wyoming’s incumbent senators are not running for re-election. Click on to see which of these races, if any, you will have a part in.
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Alabama: Tommy Tuberville (R) vs. Doug Jones (D)
- Incumbent: Doug Jones (Democrat, senator since 2018)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 76 in 100 Republican
Alabama Sen. Doug Jones is the first Democrat to represent the Southern state since 1997, only eking out a 2017 win against Republican Roy Moore, who was accused of sexual misconduct. Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who formerly held Jones’ seat, mounted a campaign to win it back, but former football coach Tommy Tuberville won the Republican primary against Sessions with an endorsement from Donald Trump. Despite the Democrats narrowly gaining this seat in the Trump-friendly Deep South, they are expected to lose it to the more conservative Tuberville.
[Pictured: Sen. Doug Jones.]
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Al Gross (D)
- Incumbent: Dan Sullivan (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 78 in 100 Republican
Alaska has been a safe Republican state for the past few decades, with incumbent Dan Sullivan expected to retain his seat. Sullivan faces off against independent Al Gross, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and an independent who has the support of the Democratic Party. Despite trailing in the polls, Gross has received an influx of funds and donations, making Alaska slightly more competitive than expected.
[Pictured: Sen. Dan Sullivan.]
Arizona: Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
- Incumbent: Martha McSally (Republican, senator since 2019)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 78 in 100 Democratic
Sen. Martha McSally has had an interesting congressional career, losing a 2018 Senate contest to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema; however, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the vacant Senate seat that was once occupied by the late John McCain. Challenging McSally is Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, and husband to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in 2011. Kelly’s work as a part of NASA and his advocacy for gun control has made Kelly a popular figure in the country at large, and a favorite to win McSally’s seat.
[Pictured: Sen. Martha McSally.]
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) vs. Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)
- Incumbent: Tom Cotton (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
Close Trump ally Tom Cotton does not have a Democratic challenger for his seat, as the Arkansas Democratic Party failed to install a nominee. As such, Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. is the only major challenger, but Cotton has the only realistic chance of winning the race. Despite a debate scheduled between the two, Cotton refused to debate Harrington, with the latter appearing at the debate event alone.
[Pictured: Sen. Tom Cotton.]
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) vs. John W. Hickenlooper (D)
- Incumbent: Cory Gardner (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 79 in 100 Democratic
Although former Gov. John Hickenlooper swore during his 2020 presidential campaign that he would not run for the Senate, Hickenlooper changed his mind shortly after dropping out of the presidential race. Incumbent Cory Gardner’s record of supporting Donald Trump’s policies has come into question, and Gardner has been losing ground in polls against the popular former governor. National Republican groups appear to have noticed as well, as they are slowing down funds toward the race.
[Pictured: Sen. Cory Gardner.]
Delaware: Lauren Witzke (R) vs. Christopher A. Coons (D)
- Incumbent: Christopher Coons (Democrat, senator since 2011)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
Delaware is a solid blue state for the Democratic Party, and as such, the race between freshman Sen. Chris Coons and Republican challenger Lauren Witzke has been largely low-key compared to the more prolific races in 2020. Although Delaware held virtual debates for its statewide contests, Coons did not participate in a discussion with Witzke.
[Pictured: Sen. Christopher A. Coons.]
Georgia: David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
- Incumbent: David Perdue (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 72 in 100 Republican
Incumbent Sen. David Perdue has been embroiled in a number of controversies leading up to the 2020 election. For one, Perdue was implicated in congressional insider trading relating to the coronavirus; the senator also courted controversy with an advertisement that enlarged the nose of his opponent, Democrat Jon Ossoff, and mocking the name of vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Both moves have been viewed as racist attacks; regardless, Perdue is still favored to win in red Georgia.
[Pictured: Sen. David Perdue.]
Georgia: special election
- Incumbent: Kelly Loeffler (Republican, senator since 2020)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 74 in 100 Republican
Current Sen. Kelly Loeffler was appointed to her seat, and she runs the risk of losing it due to a variety of factors. As this is a special election, Georgia law has the contest as a nonpartisan election, with Loeffler running against fellow Republican Doug Collins and Democrat Raphael Warnock; if no candidate wins a majority of over 50%, the contest will go to a runoff against the two top-performing candidates. While the seat may very well stay Republican, Loeffler herself has attracted controversy with her criticism of the WNBA’s support of Black Lives Matter—Loeffler owns the Atlanta Dream team—and with a television ad claiming that she is more conservative than Attila the Hun.
[Pictured: Sen. Kelly Loeffler.]
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) vs. Paulette Jordan (D)
- Incumbent: Jim Risch (Republican, senator since 2009)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
Even before his election to the Senate, Jim Risch had a long career in Idaho politics, serving in the Idaho Senate and holding the offices of Lieutenant Governor and Governor of the state. With his familiarity and name recognition in the usually red Idaho, Risch is believed to be a safe bet for his re-election campaign against Democrat Paulette Jordan.
[Pictured: Sen. Jim Risch.]
Illinois: Mark C. Curran Jr. (R) vs. Richard J. Durbin (D)
- Incumbent: Dick Durbin (Democrat, senator since 1997)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
As the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, Dick Durbin has been consistently re-elected by his constituents, and threats to his seat have been minor. This is again the case in 2020, with opponents Republican Mark Curran and Independent Willie Wilson making an opposition push against Durbin, but the polling remains in Durbin’s favor.
[Pictured: Sen. Richard J. Durbin.]
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)
- Incumbent: Joni Ernst (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: toss-up
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 53 in 100 Democratic
Iowa is a major battleground in 2020, and the results of this contest may determine which party controls the Senate. Joni Ernst is facing a strong challenge from Democratic businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, debating her in mid-October. The race is believed to be the most expensive race in the state’s history, and one of the most expensive ones in this election cycle.
[Pictured: Sen. Joni Ernst.]
Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
- Incumbent: Pat Roberts (Republican, senator since 1997)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 74 in 100 Republican
Republican incumbent Pat Roberts is retiring from the United States Senate, leaving his seat wide open. Kansas has traditionally been a Republican state, and Congressman Roger Marshall, a retired doctor who promotes hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 treatment, was initially favored to keep the seat for the GOP. However, Democratic State Sen. Barbara Bollier has surprisingly raised a high amount of funds for her campaign, especially compared to previous Democratic candidates in the state.
[Pictured: Rep. Roger Marshall.]
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
- Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (Republican, senator since 1985)
- 270toWin forecast rating: likely Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 96 in 100 Republican
Mitch McConnell’s tenure as Senate Majority Leader of obstructing legislation and filling judicial seats with conservatives has been highly criticized nationwide. But even with his national reputation, Kentucky is a stronghold for McConnell, who is likely to win his seventh term in office. Despite strong fundraising from Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, and even a tonal shift that is Trump-friendly to a degree, McConnell still remains the favorite in this prolific race.
[Pictured: Sen. Mitch McConnell.]
Louisiana: special election
- Incumbent: Bill Cassidy (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 97 in 100 Republican
The 2020 Senate election in Louisiana has a rather unusual format, taking the form of a “jungle primary.” Incumbent Bill Cassidy will face off against a litany of other candidates of all party affiliations, including other Republicans; should no one win a majority of the vote, a runoff election will decide the victor. But even with the strange structure of the race, Cassidy has the clear advantage in polling and in fundraising.
[Pictured: Sen. Bill Cassidy.]
Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Sara Gideon (D)
- Incumbent: Susan Collins (Republican, senator since 1997)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 62 in 100 Democratic
Republican Susan Collins has made a name for herself by taking moderate stances throughout her Senate career; however, her constituents have slowly turned on her during the era of Donald Trump. Collins voted to confirm now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, and voted against conviction during the impeachment of President Trump, both unpopular decisions in Maine. Enthusiasm for Collins’ challenger, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon, has translated into favorable poll numbers and sky-rocketing fundraising.
[Pictured: Sen. Susan Collins.]
Connor (R) vs. Ed Markey (D)
- Incumbent: Ed Markey (Democrat, senator since 2013)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
Massachusetts, like much of New England, is reliably blue for the Democratic Party. Incumbent Ed Markey, a former congressman appointed to John Kerry’s former Senate seat, defeated Joe Kennedy III in a hotly contested primary election, putting him in a strong position against Republican challenger Kevin O’Connor.
[Pictured: Sen. Ed Markey.]
Michigan: John James (R) vs. Gary Peters (D)
- Incumbent: Gary Peters (Democrat, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 79 in 100 Democratic
While incumbent Gary Peters has had favorable polls for his re-election campaign, there is some anxiety for the Democrats, as Michigan is a state that Donald Trump won in 2016. Peters has a challenger in John James, a young, Black, military veteran who supports Trump. More recent poll numbers indicate that the gap in support between the two may be smaller than expected.
[Pictured: Sen. Gary Peters.]
Minnesota: Jason Lewis (R) vs. Tina Smith (D)
- Incumbent: Tina Smith (Democrat, senator since 2018)
- 270toWin forecast rating: likely Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 93 in 100 Democratic
Ever since Tina Smith was appointed to her Senate seat, following the resignation of then-Sen. Al Franken due to sexual misconduct allegations, she has enjoyed high approval ratings from her constituents. While Franken faced tough challenges and a recount to win his seat, Smith, the former lieutenant governor of the state, is enjoying an authoritative lead in the polls over her Republican challenger, Congressman Jason Lewis.
[Pictured: Sen. Tina Smith.]
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs. Mike Espy (D)
Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Mike Espy, and the 2020 contest is largely expected to play out the same. While he faces an uphill battle in the Deep South, Espy’s fundraising has outmatched that of Hyde-Smith as the Democrats make one last advertising push in the final weeks.
[Pictured: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.]
Montana: Steve Daines (R) vs. Steve Bullock (D)
- Incumbent: Steve Daines (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: toss-up
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 69 in 100 Republican
Former Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is an also-ran in the 2020 Democratic primaries, initially vowing to not run for the Senate, but changing his mind to present a strong challenge to incumbent Steve Daines. Unfortunately for Bullock, Daines is generally controversy-free in Montana, where Donald Trump is still relatively popular. Bullock may be able to depend on his statewide popularity, having won three statewide elections before, but polling at the moment indicates that the race will remain close.
[Pictured: Sen. Steve Daines.]
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) vs. Chris Janicek (D)
- Incumbent: Ben Sasse (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
Republican Ben Sasse may benefit from discord within Nebraska’s Democratic Party, as the winner of the Democratic primary, businessman Chris Janicek, lost the support of his own party after sexually charged text messages surfaced. After the scandal, the Democratic Party endorsed Preston Love Jr. as a write-in candidate. In addition to the already bizarre situation, audio of Sasse criticizing Trump leaked to the press, leading Trump, who initially endorsed Sasse, to call for Sasse’s replacement in a lengthy Twitter rant.
[Pictured: Sen. Ben Sasse.]
New Hampshire: Corky Messner (R) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
- Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat, senator since 2009)
- 270toWin forecast rating: likely Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 98 in 100 Democratic
Although New Hampshire was more often represented by Republicans in the Senate before Jeanne Shaheen won her 2008 election, Shaheen has since successfully combated challengers for her seat. The same is expected in her 2020 contest against Corky Messner, who was pointed out as having only lived in New Hampshire for a few years.
[Pictured: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.]
New Jersey: Rikin Mehta (R) vs. Cory Booker (D)
- Incumbent: Cory Booker (Democrat, senator since 2013)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
After ending his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, Cory Booker refocused on his Senate reelection campaign. As a popular figure and former mayor of Newark, New Jersey, polling indicates that Booker has little chance of losing to Republican challenger Rik Mehta, with the race barely making a blip in the news cycle.
[Pictured: Sen. Cory Booker.]
n (D)
- Incumbent: Tom Udall (Democrat, senator since 2009)
- 270toWin forecast rating: likely Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 94 in 100 Democratic
Democrat Tom Udall is retiring from the Senate, leaving his seat wide open—however, Democrats are still expected to retain the seat. Congressman Ben Ray Luján is the leading candidate for the 2020 race, surpassing his opponent, Republican Mark Ronchetti, by 10 points in an October poll.
[Pictured: Rep. Ben Lujan.]
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)
- Incumbent: Thom Tillis (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: toss-up
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 66 in 100 Democratic
One of the most pivotal races in 2020 is taking place in North Carolina, where incumbent Thom Tillis is fighting to retain his position. Challenger Cal Cunningham has helped to make this contest the most expensive Senate race ever, and despite a sexting scandal, Cunningham is still leading the polls and currently forecasted to take the seat for the Democrats. Out of all of the ongoing Senate races, the one in North Carolina is perhaps the most volatile one.
[Pictured: Sen. Thom Tillis.]
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) vs. Abby Broyles (D)
Oklahoma is a very red state, and polls have Inhofe leading challenger Abby Broyles in a landslide. The climate change-denying and anti-same sex marriage Inhofe is almost certainly to stay in the Senate for another six years.
[Pictured: Sen. Jim Inhofe.]
Oregon: Jo Rae Perkins (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
- Incumbent: Jeff Merkley (Democrat, senator since 2009)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
Generally liberal Sen. Jeff Merkley is the incumbent for the Senate race in the generally liberal state of Oregon. On the other end of the political spectrum is his opponent Jo Rae Perkins, who publicly supports the far-right conspiracy theory known as QAnon. Merkley’s constituents are not taking to the views of Perkins, and Merkley enjoys a strong lead over her campaign.
[Pictured: Sen. Jeff Merkley.]
Rhode Island: Allen Waters (R) vs. Jack Reed (D)
- Incumbent: Jack Reed (Democrat, senator since 1997)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Democratic
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Democratic
Veteran legislator Jack Reed is facing off against political newcomer Allen Waters in Rhode Island’s Senate election, and voters are likely to select Reed once again. Still, Reed has made the effort to campaign and reach out to his constituents, even amid the coronavirus pandemic. Waters, in the meanwhile, had some trouble with the state’s Republican Party, at one point losing its endorsement for his arrest for domestic violence last year.
[Pictured: Sen. Jack Reed.]
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D)
- Incumbent: Lindsey Graham (Republican, senator since 2003)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 77 in 100 Republican
Lindsey Graham has had a long career representing South Carolina in the Senate, but his prolific support for Donald Trump as his attack dog has brought him national scrutiny. Previous polls indicated that Graham was still popular enough in his home state, but challenger Jaime Harrison is putting up a formidable fight. Graham himself admitted that he was “getting killed financially” against Harrison, the latter who made a show during a debate against Graham by bringing a plexiglass barrier for protection against COVID-19 infection.
[Pictured: Sen. Lindsey Graham.]
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) vs. Dan Ahlers (D)
- Incumbent: Mike Rounds (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
In the Trump-supporting state of South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds is expected to keep his Senate seat. His opponent is Dan Ahlers, a former state legislator. However, Ahlers has consistently stayed behind Rounds in the polls, and his campaign has garnered little to no national press.
[Pictured: Sen. Mike Rounds.]
Tennessee: Bill Hagerty (R) vs. Marquita Bradshaw (D)
- Incumbent: Lamar Alexander (Republican, senator since 2003)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
Long-tenured Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander declined to run for another term, but his seat is expected to be safe in Republican hands. Former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty is running for the Republican Party, facing off against environmentalist Marquita Bradshaw of the Democratic Party. Despite high-profile endorsements from national politicians and campaign events featuring celebrities like Amy Schumer, Bradshaw suffers from poor name recognition and relatively low fundraising.
[Pictured: Ambassador Bill Hagerty.]
Texas: John Cornyn (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)
- Incumbent: John Cornyn (Republican, senator since 2003)
- 270toWin forecast rating: leans Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: 87 in 100 Republican
High-ranking Senate Republican John Cornyn is facing a challenge from Democrat and Air Force veteran MJ Hegar. Although Texas has historically been a Republican state, Democrats have pushed this election cycle to turn Texas blue, spurred by Beto O’Rourke’s close race against Ted Cruz in 2018. While the polls are still in Cornyn’s favor, Democratic organizations have made a big push for ad spending in the final weeks of the campaign.
[Pictured: Sen. John Cornyn.]
Virginia: Daniel Gade (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
d as the likely winner for his 2020 reelection campaign. Warner’s opponent is Army veteran Daniel Gade, who is seen as the underdog of the race.
[Pictured: Sen. Mark Warner.]
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. Paula Jean Swearengin (D)
- Incumbent: Shelley Capito (Republican, senator since 2015)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
West Virginia is a markedly red state, so Republicans can expect to hold onto Shelley Capito’s Senate seat. Capito’s challenger is Paula Jean Swearengin, who previously ran a primary against moderate and conservative Democrat Joe Manchin in 2018; however, Manchin went on to win both the primary and the general election. Poll forecasts indicate that the needle will probably not move in West Virginia, clearing the way for Capito.
[Pictured: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito.]
Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis (R) vs. Merav Ben-David (D)
- Incumbent: Mike Enzi (Republican, senator since 1997)
- 270toWin forecast rating: solid Republican
- Chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight: >99 in 100 Republican
The low-populated state of Wyoming generally elects Republican officials, and the 2020 Senate race is unlikely to change this. Incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi is retiring, and looking to succeed him is former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis. Her challenger is ecologist Merav Ben-David, and although she is lagging in the polls, the winner of this election will end up being the first female senator to represent Wyoming.
[Pictured: Rep. Cynthia Lummis.]
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